Panic at Orlando airport spoiled my golfing trip

Golf season in Canada can be very short because of bad weather. One of my guilty pleasures is heading south for an annual golf trip with the boys every November. We started this tradition sixteen years ago and I would have to be very ill to miss it.

As a volunteer driver, I experienced first-hand the panic at the Orlando airport while dropping off a friend after our last round of golf. We decided to go early so we could have   dinner together at the airport. Walking in, we faced a stampede of frighten travelers running and screaming to the exits.

Some travelers thought they heard gun fire while others thought that they heard an explosion. Standing outside watching the Orlando Police conduct their investigation with weapons drawn was very alarming.

It turns out that a camera battery exploded in a bag which cause people to panic and the airport to be evacuated. Thousands of travelers faced hours of waiting at security checkpoints.

Phil Brown, CEO of the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority, said a full ground-stop was issued at 5:30 p.m. and lasted until 9 p.m. At a press conference Friday night, Brown said 24 flights were canceled and 27 others were diverted. He acknowledged that some passengers will have to book new flights, and others might struggle to find hotel rooms for the night.

He added that some airport staff and TSA agents instructed the crowd to take cover, when the initial explosion created confusion among staff and passengers.

At first glance, it may seem that the Orlando Aviation Authority may have over reacted to a faulty camera battery. However, it happened on the same day that Americans celebrate veteran’s day.  Plus no one wants to read about children getting hurt after visiting Disney World.

I felt bad for my friend who ended up sleeping at the airport as his flight was cancelled and rescheduled for 2:30 p.m. the next day. I was lucky that my early morning flight was cancelled and I got some extra sleep. It made delays in my rescheduled flight a little more bearable.

Will this unfortunate incidence stop me from going south golfing? Not a chance, however I may decide to spend a few extra days driving instead of flying.

The moral of this story is managing risk extends beyond the financial markets. Panic and over reaction can easily cause a major sell off in stock markets. You can’t predict what will cause a stampede to the exits.

 

 

 

 

 

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Investing ideas: I liked the product so much, I bought the company

Victor K. Kiam made a fortune as the President and CEO of Remington Products which he famously purchased in 1979 after his wife bought him his first electric shaver. Kiam became famous as the spokesman for the Remington shaver. His catchphrase, “I liked the shaver so much, I bought the company”, it made him a household name.

Your iPhone is your BFF and you can’t function without a Starbucks latte. You post something on your Facebook page every day, go home from work and chill out by watching Netflix. They’re all products you love and know well.

But does that mean the companies behind them are good investments?

The short answer: At least it’s a good starting point.

At first glance, it isn’t a terrible idea to own stocks if you have a good understanding of a company’s products and have a good feeling it will be successful. Yet knowing whether a business makes a good product and has excellent customer service are by no means the only measurements for investing.

For example: Snapchat (SNAP) and Twitter (TWTR) are both very popular but can they become sustainable businesses with positive earnings growth? So far, it isn’t looking very good for either of these companies. Before you invest, you have to determine whether the product or service is just a new fad or a money-making long-term trend.

One of my best investment ideas in 2016 came from going on vacation on a cruise line. Talking to other passengers I got very positive feedback on their cruise line experiences. Plus many of my boomer friends confirmed that they also loved taking a vacation on a cruise line.  The baby boom generation is getting older and I had dinner with many passengers in their eighties and even with one women in her nineties. (This could be a long-term trend)

Although I was on vacation on a Carnival ship, I bought shares in Royal Caribbean after extensive research.

Price / Earnings Earnings growth (5yr) Operating margin
Royal Caribbean 17.7 times 16.45% 19.95%
Carnival 18.5 times 8.95% 16.63%

It turns out that I could have beaten the returns of the S&P 500 index by owning either RCL or CCL as illustrated by the chart below.

Finding good, long-term investments is exceedingly difficult, there are only a few good ideas out there. When you find an extraordinary business and you have an understanding of what its future looks like, you should invest some money into it. Unfortunately, going that takes time, effort and know-how, often more than casual investors will do on their own “but it can be done”.

My 200th post: Investing in the Second Machine Age

As a retired senior, I am having difficulty adjusting to ” the Second Machine Age”. The advances in technology are mind blowing. I would never have guessed that self-driving cars in science fiction movies like “Minority Report”  or “I Robot” could become available in my life time.  How about Elon Musk’s vision of offering a rocket ride of only 30 minutes to get to London from L.A., is that just science fiction or a potential reality?

China, the world’s biggest vehicle market, is considering a ban on the production and sale of fossil fuel vehicles in order to reduce pollution and boost the production of electric vehicles. The move would follow a similar ban by France and Britain but they have included a 2040 timeline. However, China has introduced draft regulation to compel vehicle manufacturers to produce more electric vehicles by 2020 through a complex quota system.

Some possible investments to consider

  1. Millions of dollars are pouring into the Global X lithium & Battery ETF (LIT). It has had a massive gain in value of 58% so far this year. It has also attracted short sellers who are betting on a pullback in price.
  2. For stock pickers, the top ten holdings of LIT include five U.S. listed companies, ticker symbols Tsla, FMC, SQM, ENS and ALB. A word of caution, some of these stocks have very high valuations and can be very volatile.

There is little doubt in my mind that advances in digital automation, robotics and artificial intelligence will change your living standards over the next decade. Just think how companies like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google and Apple have already influence our lives during the past decade.

A 2013 study by Oxford University’s Carl Frey and Michael Osborne estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs will potentially be replaced by robots and automated technology in the next 10 to 20 years. Those individuals working in transportation, logistics, office management and production are likely to be the first to lose their jobs to robots, according to the report.

Some possible investments to consider to capitalize on this trend

  1. Robotics and Automation ETF (ROBO) which contains three U.S. listed companies in their top ten holdings. Ticker symbols, AVAV, HOLI and CGNX
  2. Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) which contains three U.S. listed companies in their top ten holdings. Ticker symbols: NVDA, ISRG and TRMB
  3.  Semiconductor ETFs like SOXX or SMH which include companies that provide key components for self-driving vehicles, automation, robotics and artificial intelligence. The top ten holdings of these ETFs are places to look for individual names that could outperform the overall market.

There is also an interesting book that I am thinking about buying.

Synopsis: According to the authors, the book has three sections.

  • Chapters 1 through 6 describe “the fundamental characteristics of the second machine age,” based on many examples of modern use of technology.
  • Chapters 7 through 11 describe economic impacts of technology in terms of two concepts the authors call “bounty” and “spread.” What the authors call “bounty” is their attempt to measure the benefits of new technology in ways reaching beyond such measures as GDP, which they say is inadequate. They use “spread” as a shorthand way to describe the increasing inequality that is also resulting from widespread new technology.
  • Chapters 12 through 15, the authors prescribe some policy interventions that could enhance the benefits and reduce the harm of new technologies.

You can also search you-tube “The second machine age” to listen to the authors speak. 

 

Disclaimer: Do your own research, these investment ideas can be very volatile. 

Ignoring investment rules to achieve income

 

A few months ago, I asked readers for advice regarding a $300,000 inheritance. The couple are in their late fifties, debt free with little savings. Although, they are very fugal, they live paycheck to paycheck due to lack of steady full time work. Few companies want to hire older workers when they can hire young people for a lot less.

Being very good friends, they came to me for some free advice. After a few meetings, I realized that traditional investment strategies just wouldn’t work this couple. They have been dipping into their retirement accounts to pay bills. I recommended putting $100,000 back into their retirement accounts. The $200,000 into a joint investment account with a discount broker in order to split the income and save on fees.

Disregarding Asset Allocation guidelines

Based on their age and proximity to retirement, a 60% equities and 40% bonds mix would have been appropriate. However, investing in bonds with low interest rates, inflation and taxation doesn’t give them very much income.

Disregarding Diversification guidelines

Being Canadian, foreign dividends are taxed like interest payments similar to Canadian bonds. Plus, foreign assets are subject to currency fluctuations. The increased value of the Canadian dollar has wiped out all U.S dividends and most of the capital gains from owning U.S. stocks.

Disregarding suitability guidelines

This couple’s investment knowledge is very limited, their only investments have been in mutual funds with high management fees. After explaining how high fees will reduce their income, they agreed to take more risk in owning some individual stocks and exchanged traded funds.

Constructing a portfolio to maximize income and minimize risk

  1. I invested $61,418 in four Canadian Reits that generates $418.16 per month or $5,017.92 per year. The Reits income will be a combination of interest and capital gains. Compared to investing $120,000 in bonds yielding 3% per year or $3,600.00
  2. I invested $63,329 in three Canadian dividend stocks that generates $330.00 per month or $3,960 per year. Due to the couple’s low income, these dividends will be tax free income.
  3. I invested the balance of $75,253 into four covered call ETFs that generates $392.00 per month or $4,704 per year. The covered calls will produced capital gain income and the ETFs also has some dividend income in their monthly distributions.

Grand income total works out to $1,140.16 per month. The average annualized return on the $200,000 portfolio is 6.85% with a minimum amount of risk.  

This is only a temporary solution to achieve some monthly income until their work situation changes. Sometimes investment guidelines have to be broken because one size doesn’t fit all.

Upcoming blockbusters could boost movie chain stocks

I have to admit that one of my guilty pleasures is watching movies on a big movie screen. My wife and I really enjoy science fiction and superhero type movies. We see anywhere from 10 to 15 movies every year. Sometimes we will even see the same movie more than once.

2017 has been a rough year for the film industry, with the North American box office suffering its lowest-grossing summer in 25 years. Ticket sales are down 10.8 percent this summer and have decreased by nearly 3 percent year to date. Box office flops such as “The Mummy” and “Baywatch” have hurt Hollywood but there will be some upcoming movies this year that could turn into blockbusters.

Release dates in November and December of 2017 include Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League and my personal favorite Star Wars: The Last Jedi.  Upcoming movies in 2018 appears to be very strong with:

  • Black Panther
  • X-Men: The New Mutants
  • Avengers: Infinity War
  • Han Solo,
  • Deadpool 2 
  • Ant-man & The Wasp.

However, investors have really punished the movie chain stocks. U.S. chains, Regal Entertainment (RGC) and Cinemark (CNK) are down 35% & 25% respectfully over the past 6 months. Cineplex (CGX) the largest Canadian chain is also down 25%, see chart below:

The vast majority of theaters in the U.S. keep a larger percentage of the ticket sales the longer the film is in the theater. For example: opening weekend they may get 10%, the 4th  week up to 25% and the 10th  week up to 50% or more. While concessions account for only about 20% of gross revenues, they represent about 40% of theaters’ profits. Profit margins on soda and popcorn average 85 percent.

All three of these stocks pay dividends, Regal has the highest yield of 5.7% followed by Cineplex at 4.35% and Cinemark with 3.43%. I expect that their 3rd quarter results could disappoint which would be a good buying opportunity. However, there is a risk that the price of these stocks could move up in anticipation of better future earnings.

Possible ways to trade a rebound in movie chain stocks

  1. Take a half position now and buy the other half after 3rd quarter earnings are released
  2. Buy a full position near the ex-dividend date, to get paid while you wait
  3. Buy half position, sell covered calls and sell cash secured puts for the other half.
  4. Buy some long calls near 4th quarter earnings release scheduled for Feb. 2018

Being an option trader, I am going to wait until Feb 2018 options are available. If the VIX which measures volatility stays low, I will probably buy a call option on one or two of these stocks.

 

Disclaimer: This post is for discussion purposes, do your own research.

A big disconnect between the Stock Market and the Canadian Economy

Canada’s economy is expanding at its fastest annualized rate in six years according to Statistics Canada. That’s a quarterly expansion rate of 4.5% which is the highest figure since the third quarter of 2011. It was led by the biggest binge in household spending since before the 2008-2009 global recession.

Economists had predicted Canada to grow around 3.7% and the Bank of Canada latest forecast was for GDP to expand at 3% in their July press release. When combined with the 3.7% expansion of the first quarter, it’s the strongest six month start in 15 years.

Why isn’t money pouring into the Toronto Stock Market?

Often times the equity market is moving well before the economy does and of course the Canadian equity market had a robust year in 2016. Investors may already have priced in all the good news last year, when Canada’s stock index gained 18 percent, one of the world’s best performances.

Part of the problem is that Canada’s stock market isn’t totally reflective of the economy, since it’s heavily reliant on energy and financials. Those two sectors account for 54 percent of the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

The outlook for oil is very subdued, it is still trading below $50 a barrel even with the shutdown of refineries due to hurricane Harvey. Global inventories continue to stay high and OPEC’s has lost its influence in cutting production. Crude oil prices in the future’s market are still below $50 a barrel for all of 2018 and part of 2019. Foreign investors are taking money out of the Alberta’s oil patch.

Continued growth in residential investments which was up an annualized 16 percent in the first quarter is also likely to fade as the impact of government measures to cool housing markets kick in. Although, bank earnings have beat expectations by a wide margin, loan growth going forward is expected to decline and loan losses are expected to increase. U.S. hedge funds are still shorting Canadian financials expecting the housing bubble to burst.

Investors believe that this robust growth will force the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates this year. It could add extra pressure to lowering consumer spending due to high indebtedness of Canadian households. It will also add a cooling effect to the hot housing prices in both the Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets. The rapid rise in the value of the Canadian dollar is added proof that currency traders are betting that a hike in interest rates is coming soon.

Uncertainty over NATFA  renegotiation

Global political developments aren’t helping, with renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement which started in August, created a new spat with the U.S. erupting over aerospace manufacturing.

Already, data suggest investment into the country is cooling. Foreign direct investment in Canada dropped 25 percent to C$8.68 billion in the first quarter, according to separate data released Tuesday. The country relies heavily on foreign funding to finance spending — totaling C$130 billion over the past two years, according to balance of payment data.

Canada has benefited from a convergence of developments that include a coordinated global recovery and rising trade volumes. The bottoming of the oil shock in western Canada, along with federal deficit spending, rising industrial production in developed economies. Canadian consumers have benefited from a buoyant jobs market and rising home values, resulting in a surge in consumer spending.

Is this Sustainable? I think not!

Economists had been predicting a slowdown in growth to about 2 percent in the second half of this year, but are revising numbers up after the GDP report. I believe this surge in economic growth is temporary. The higher value of the Canadian dollar and higher interest rates will dampen economic growth.

The Toronto stock market returns for all of 2017 are flat which could indicate that foreign investors also believe the future going forward isn’t so rosy!

 

 

 

Risk Tolerance Questionnaire

Take a piece of paper and write down the letter that best describes you for each question. Remember that risk tolerance is largely subjective, so there is no right or wrong answer.

Life Stage

  1. What is your current age? 
    a) 65 or older.
    b) 60 to 64.
    c) 55 to 59.
    d) 50 to 54.
    e) Under 50.
  2. When do you expect to need to withdraw cash from your investment portfolio? 
    a) In less than 1 year.
    b) Within 1 to 2 years.
    c) Within 2 to 5 years.
    d) Within 5 to 10 years.
    e)Not for at least 10 years


Financial Resources

  1. How many months of current living expenses could you cover with your present savings and liquid, short-term investments, before you would have to draw on your investment portfolio? 
    a) Less than 3 months.
    b) 3 to 6 months.
    c) 6 to 12 months.
    d) More than 12 months.
  2. Over the next few years, what do you expect will happen to your income? 
    a) It will probably decrease substantially.
    b) It will probably decrease slightly.
    c) It will probably stay the same.
    d) It will probably increase slightly.
    e) It will probably increase substantially.
  3. What percentage of your gross annual income have you been able to save in recent years? 
    a) None.
    b) 1 to 5%.
    c) 5 to 10%
    d) 10 to 15%
    e) more than 15%
  4. Over the next few years, what do you expect will happen to your rate of savings? 
    a) It will probably decrease substantially.
    b) It will probably decrease slightly.
    c) It will probably stay the same.
    d) It will probably increase slightly.
    e) It will probably increase substantially.


Emotional Risk Tolerance

  1. What are your return expectations for your portfolio? 
    a) I don’t care if my portfolio keeps pace with inflation; I just want to preserve my capital.
    b) My return should keep pace with inflation, with minimum volatility.
    c) My return should be slightly more than inflation, with only moderate volatility.
    d) My return should significantly exceed inflation, even if this could mean significant volatility.
  2. How would you characterize your personality? 
    a) I’m a pessimist. I always expect the worst.
    b) I’m anxious. No matter what you say, I’ll worry.
    c) I’m cautious but open to new ideas. Convince me.
    d) I’m objective. Show me the pros and cons and I can make a decision and live with it.
    e) I’m optimistic. Things always work out in the end.
  3. When monitoring your investments over time, what do you think you will tend to focus on? 
    a) Individual investments that are doing poorly.
    b) Individual investments that are doing very well.
    c) The recent results of my overall portfolio.
    d) The long term performance of my overall portfolio.
  4. Suppose you had $10,000 to invest and the choice of 5 different portfolios with a range of possible outcomes after a single year. Which of the following portfolios would you feel most comfortable investing in? 
    a) Portfolio A, which could have a balance ranging from $9,900 to $10,300 at the end of the year.
    b) Portfolio B, which could have a balance ranging from $9,800 to $10,600 at the end of the year.
    c) Portfolio C, which could have a balance ranging from $9,600 to $11,000 at the end of the year.
    d) Portfolio D, which could have a balance ranging from $9,200 to $12,200 at the end of the year.
    e) Portfolio E, which could have a balance ranging from $8,400 to $14,000 at the end of the year.
  5. If the value of your investment portfolio dropped by 20% in one year, what would you do? 
    a) Fire my investment advisor.
    b) Move my money to more conservative investments immediately to reduce the potential for future losses.
    c) Monitor the situation, and if it looks like things could continue to deteriorate, move some of my money to more conservative investments.
    d) Consult with my investment advisor to ensure that my asset allocation is correct, and then ride it out.
    e) Consider investing more because prices are so low.
  6. Which of the following risks or events do you fear most? 
    a) A loss of principal over any period of 1 year or less.
    b) A rate of inflation that exceeds my rate of return over the long term, because it will erode the purchasing power of my money.
    c) Portfolio performance that is insufficient to meet my goals.
    d) Portfolio performance that is consistently less than industry benchmarks.
    e) A missed investment opportunity that could have yielded higher returns over the long term, even though it entailed higher risk.

Scoring

Give the following points for each answer: a = 1, b = 2, c = 3, d = 4, e = 5

Interpretation of Results

If your Life Stage Score is: If your Life Stage Score is: Then your Investment Time Horizon is:
1 to 3 Short-term (5 years or less)
4 to 6 Intermediate-term (5 to 10 years)
7 to 10 Long-term (over 10 years)
If your Investment Style Score is: Then Your Investment Style is:
5 to 10 Very conservative
11 to 20 Moderately conservative
21 to 30 Moderate
31 to 40 Moderately Aggressive
41 to 50 Very aggressive