Wall Street ignoring the economic pain on Main Street

Are you mystified that the S&P 500 is only down 13% from its February high and the NASDAQ is slightly positive year to date? You would think that all the bad economic numbers would dampen investor’s confidence in owning stocks. However, publicly trading companies on Wall Street have a number of advantages over Main Street.

  1. When it comes to government bailouts and subsidies, large public companies seem to be first in line. There are always claims that help is needed to save jobs or what they produce is an essential product or service. However, many of these companies used their cash to buy back stock and pay big executive bonuses instead of saving for a rainy day. (Airline industry)
  2. The Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy helps large public companies to sell bonds at low rates to stay afloat, a huge advantage over small and medium sized privately owned companies.
  3. The Federal Reserve has the bond and stock market’s back.  They are adding liquidity to the bond market by buying corporate debt and even buying high yield or junk bonds to keep interest rates low. This allows even the worst run companies to avoid bankruptcy.

Why I think that Wall Street shouldn’t be so optimistic regarding an economic recovery:

I agree with comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell who cautioned of a potential credit crunch as stimulus dollars start to dry up. The result would be the loss of thousands of small and medium sized businesses across the country. Owners of many bars, restaurants, gyms and clothing stores have stated that they are fearful of being able to cover their operating costs while limiting the number of customers allowed into their premises.

So far, 32 publicly traded companies have already filed for bankruptcy protection under chapter 11 which leaves many of their employees, suppliers and shareholders high and dry. The economic pain from Covid 19 could be long lasting as more companies file for bankruptcy protection. The recovery may take some time to gather momentum as some jobs will never come back.

It is hard to comprehend that Wall Street is dismissing the fact that all the jobs that were created over the past ten years have disappeared in just under three months. . The weekly jobless claims will continue to be momentous and don’t included workers who want a full time job but are working part time. It also doesn’t include many Americans who are out of work and don’t qualify for unemployment insurance.

I wonder, is it even possible to get people back to work without safely opening up schools and daycares? France reopened their schools last week and 70 new cases of Covid 19 were found in seven schools forcing them to close them again. A new concern for parents is an outbreak of a inflammatory syndrome in children that is linked to Covid 19. Cases of Inflammatory syndrome  have been diagnosed in 27 states in the United States.

Doctors have warned that many U.S. states have reopened without meeting CDC guidelines. The number of positive cases have spiked already in 14 states over the past few weeks. A rising death toll in the U.S. hasn’t stop many Americans from avoiding large social gatherings, ignoring social distancing guidelines and refusing to wearing a mask. There is a high probability that another spike in cases and deaths will dampen consumer spending.

Lastly baby boomers, (60 to 75 years old) have the most disposable income and also face the highest risk of dying from Covid 19. As a baby boomer, I will be avoiding the all travel and leisure activities.

  • Air travel
  • Cruising
  • Resorts and hotels
  • Movie theatres
  • Sit down restaurants
  • Casinos
  • Theme parks
  • Sporting events
  • Concerts

I will avoid anywhere there is large gathering or requires close personal contact.  I am not going to risk my life to get a haircut or go to my local pub to watch a sporting event. It is just a matter of time when Wall Street profits will be affected by lack of consumer spending.

 

Signs that this recession will be more severe than 2008-09

 

The last time we had zero interest rates was during the great recession of 2008-09. If you are a movie buff, that was one scary horror movie. Unfortunately, the sequel maybe even scarier. The plot, so far, is similar in many ways. The world faces a major crisis with high unemployment, massive government spending (bailouts), zero interest rates and central banks printing money.

How do you make a horror movie scarier than the original? The writer has to intensify the plot line and add some terrifying developments not seen in the original movie.

  • This crisis affects the whole world with every economy feeling the pain.
  • The percentage of people unemployed could be worse than the great depression of the 1930’s (25% or more)
  • The government stimulus package was in the billions last time and now in the trillions with more to come.
  • Central banks are buying huge amounts of government debt and now are buying low grade corporate debt. (Even some junk bonds)

More terrifying developments

  • Although tragic that many consumers lost their homes in the last recession, small business failures will have a more negative effect on the economy. Small businesses are responsible for employing 48% of the U.S. workforce and have generated 65% of net new jobs over the past 17 years. The unemployment rate will be higher for longer.
  • Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economy growth. Unemployed consumers will have less money to spend. Plus, images of body bags and continuing daily death counts will inhibit consumers from risking their lives to go out and even spend money.  The last recession had little impact on travel, movie theaters, theme parks, sporting events, restaurants and bars. These businesses will continue to suffer until consumer confidence returns
  • The last recession didn’t produce long lines at grocery stores. Disruption of food production was unheard of and has become a real concern as some meat packaging plants have been forced to temporarily shut down. A shortage of fruit and vegetables could be next as migrate workers could face high rates of infection.
  • Normally a drop in oil prices has a positive effect on consumer spending but a total collapse does more harm than good. Oil companies have started to suspend capital expenditures, cut dividend payouts and reduced their workforce. Countries which depend on revenues from oil production will face large budget deficits making it harder for them to stimulate their economies.
  • Food banks are experiencing a surge from a high number of people who have never needed their help before. Images of long line ups are popping up all over the United States.

 

 

  • There was a coordinated world response to the financial crisis which is sorely lacking in dealing with this pandemic. Too many leaders are more concern with keeping their jobs than going their job.

 

 

The spread of misinformation by some world leaders and some media outlets could cause a second wave of this virus. The image below is an example of irresponsible leadership. Some of these people will get sick and some may even die. However, they will also spread the virus to their families, their friends and critical medical personal at hospitals. Being a Canadian, I hope that a change in leadership in the United States will help the North American economies recover sooner rather than later.

How will this horror movie end? My best guess is when a scientist shows up holding a treatment in one hand and a vaccine in the other!

 

Stay tune for some investment ideas during these turbulent times.

 

 

 

Op-Ed: I am less optimistic of a V shape recovery

It is difficult to write a financial blog when the death count from Corvid -19 keeps going up every day. However, the big question is when we will get back to normal? I think you have to look back in history at the Spanish flu of 1918 for some clues.

Policies used to reduce the spread of Corvid -19 are similar to what was done to reduce the spread of the Spanish flu. Unfortunately, isolation, quarantine of infected people, use of disinfectants and limitations of public gatherings were applied unevenly. (Sounds familiar?) Back then, the Spanish flu came in waves and infected 500 million people, about a third of the world’s population. It lasted from Jan 2018 until Dec 1920 and somewhere around 50 million people died.

I fear that world leaders are more worried about keeping their jobs then doing their jobs. Their slow reaction of issuing stay at home orders for non-essential workers will prolong the spread of the Corvid-19. In my humble opinion, a V-shape recovery is overly optimistic.

 

The roll out of government programs to get money into the hands of individuals, small business and bailouts of large corporation will take a long time to be effective.

  • Many government websites are crashing from the number of requests for aid.
  • Many small businesses will go bankrupt before the relief funds arrive.
  • The aid to  businesses are in the form of loans which add extra operating costs, this will hider rehiring employees.
  • The United States had 16.5 million unemployment applications over the past three weeks which is just a small sampling of what is to come.
  • This is a world recession so leisure and travel will be impacted for a long time. Plus business travel, conventions and hotel stays will be limited.

The best case scenario would be a slow and cautious U shape economic recovery. What is needed is accurate testing of people who would be allowed to go back to work.  Also, a quick development of a vaccine and an effective treatment for people who are infected with the virus.

The worse case scenario would be an L or W shape economic recovery. Rushing to reopen the whole economy could cause a second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak, killing thousands of more people and shutting down businesses all over again.

I am not investing based on stock market experts who tend to be overly optimistic. I am listening to the doctors who specialize on disease control. Their timeline of a vaccine is 12 to 18 months away. Therefore this recession will probably last around 18 to 24 months. The chart below illustrates that happen to the S&P 500 during the last recession of 2008-09:

This chart illustrates the past two years of the S&P:

I am not an expert on charts but I think that there is a good chance that what we are seeing is a bear market rally. There is more bad news coming that hasn’t been priced into stock prices. I would suggest that you play it safe and sell into stock market rallies and hold on to your cash.

Save lives and stay at home. The life you save may be your own!

 

 

 

 

 

Some recommendations for new investors with not allot of capital

 

 

One Size Doesn’t Fit All

 

It has been a long time since one of my readers posed a question that could be answered in a blog post.

Do you have any recommendations for new investors with not allot of capital to start with? $5000 – $10000. Just wondering if there are any things you wish you knew when you started or good resources you would recommend for learning some important basics. Maybe even specific to Canada, allot of the books I have been reading are by American authors.

Before choosing what to invest in, you have to think about your time frame. Is this money going to be tied up short term (1 to 5 years) or long term?  Next you have to decide on a savings goal. For example; are you saving to get married, buying a home or saving for retirement. Finally, you have measure your risk tolerance.

Some short term investment ideas

Low risk investments are usually recommend for a short term saving goals. You don’t want to risk having less money then what you started with. Unfortunately, low risk means low returns. I personally like Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) because the management fees are lower than mutual funds and they still offer the safely of diversification. Since this blog request came from a Canadian, I will use examples from a list of BMO’s Exchange Traded Funds

  • Low risk – BMO (ZGB) Government bond ETFs – offers 2.5 return
  • Medium risk – BMO (ZLC) Long Corporate bond – offers 4% return
  • Medium risk – BMO (ZWC) Canadian Dividend covered call – offers 6.9% return
  • High risk – BMO (ZJK) Corporate high yield bond ETFs – 7.25 % return

Some Long term investment ideas

  • Low risk – BMO (ZBAL) Balance ETF – 61% equities, 39% bonds
  • Medium risk – BMO (ZGRO) Growth – 81% equities, 19% bonds
  • High Risk – BMO (ZNQ) Nasdaq 100 – 100% U.S. equities

When it comes to investing, Canadians have some flexible options. One of the best options is opening a Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA) with a discount broker; very low trading commissions and no tax payable on income or capital gains. It can be used for both short term and long term savings goals.

Another option for people who are in a high tax bracket is a retirement account as long as you take the tax refund and reinvest it. For example: Someone in the 35% tax bracket would get a refund of $3,500 with a $10,000 contribution into a retirement account. (RRSP- Registered Retirement Savings Plan for Canadians)

For small investors, I highly recommend using a Dividend Reinvesting Plan (DRIP). Most EFTs offer the ability to reinvest the income into additional shares with no trading costs. DRIPs use a technique called dollar cost averaging which allows the investor to buy stock as it moves up and down. A great way to compound your returns.

Finally some reading resources for learning some important basics:

  1. The Wealthy Barber Returns
  2. The Good, Bad and the Downright Awful in Canadian Investments
  3. Canadian Securities Text Book ( buy it used on Kijiji )

Please do your own research, examples in this post are not recommendations.  

Merry Christmas!!!

Opinion: The Fed cutting interest rates could be a big mistake

Stock market watchers are expecting a rate cut this week because they believe that the U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown. Second quarter GDP growth was 2.1% which is lower than the 3.1% growth rate during the first quarter. However, consumer spending rose 4.3% despite the fact that tax refunds were smaller than previous years. The GOP tax cuts did increase the weekly take home pay for consumers which accounts for some of the strong spending.

Growth deceleration in the second quarter was due mostly to tariffs and a fear of a global slowdown.  China’s economic growth has slumped to its lowest level in nearly three decades due to the prolonged trade war with the United States. However, the biggest drag on the U.S. economy has been a slump in business investment which was down 5.5 percent.

It is hard for corporations to spend money with Trump’s tariff threats on most of its trading partners. The new NAFTA or USMCA hasn’t even been approved by Congress; then add the uncertainty of a smooth Brexit (Britain leaving the European Union) and you a recipe for a slowdown in business spending.  In reality the Trump administration is partly to blame for the slump in world economic growth.

In order for the Trump administration to win the trade war they need interest rate cuts in order to lower the value of the U.S. dollar so that their tariffs are more effective. China can easily lower the value of their currency compared to the U.S. because the Federal Reserve is an independent agency.

Why I believe that lowering U.S. interest rates is a bad idea!

  1. Trump has relentlessly used social media to criticize the Fed. To remain independent, the Fed has to resist political pressure.
  2. Unemployment is at the lowest level in decades; the economy doesn’t need more stimulus.
  3. Lowering interest rates will enable Trump to pursue a more aggressive use of tariffs which in turn will further slow world economic growth.
  4. Cheap money will allow corporations to buy back more of their shares adding debt to their balance sheet.
  5. Low interest rates will encourage more wasteful government spending, adding to the already large national debt.
  6. Pension plans will get less interest on fixed income investments making it more difficult to meet their monthly commitments.
  7. Consumers will get less interest on their savings accounts.

Conclusion: Cutting interest rates could make matters worse. It could prolong the trade war with China and enable the Trump administration to actually follow through with threats of imposing more tariffs on their other trading partners.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock markets haven’t priced in a Never Ending Trade War

Investors consider tariffs and the trade war as only being temporary. A U.S. – China trade deal, will sound the all clear signal for markets and the economy. But there are indications that we may be in for a longer, more prolonged set of trade battles. A Trade War could last as long as Trump remains in office.

Consider:

  1. U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs remain in place even after the U.S. signed a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada on Sept. 30.
  2. The administration wants to retain the ability to slap punitive tariffs on China permanently as part of a new trade deal.
  3. The administration is moving to institute $11 billion in tariffs on European aviation imports, and there are concerns that the next step is tariffs on European auto imports.

 

Bank of America Merrill Lynch global economist Ethan Harris has said he expects trade wars to continue over different issues and with different trade partners, even if there is an agreement with China. “The trade war is not going to go away during President Trump’s tenure in office. I think it will go through periods of hot war and cold war,” he said.

 

There are political and economic reasons for a long trade war.

On the political front, Trump campaigned on reviving U.S. manufacturing, reducing trade deficits and making better trade deals.  A continued pitched battle with U.S. trading partners shows his political base that he is fighting for them in hopes of being re-elected. Also, the trade hawks in the Trump administration want some form of permanent tariffs in place and welcome trade battles.

On the economic front, the Trump administration believes that tariffs are a good negotiating tool to force countries to eliminate unfair trade practices. The goal is giving U.S. industries protection to redevelop and gain market share back from China and other low-cost competitors.

Unfortunately, temporary tariffs won’t work. It’s clear that a manufacturing revival requires substantial investment and it takes a lot of time to move plants back to the United States.  Capital will only flow to these industries if it believes its protections from cheap foreign goods is permanent, not temporary.

How tariffs are hurting the economy!

  • Trade uncertainty has damped corporate spending on capital projects.
  • Corporate profit margins are expected to contract because tariffs have increased costs but market conditions won’t allow corporations to increase prices.
  • Share buybacks are at all time highs, a sign of low business confidence.

Year to date, the North American stock markets have been steadily rising. However, first quarter earnings estimates have been reduced and disappointing results could spark a market correction. Fund managers have been getting defensive as one of best performing sectors during the past 12 months has been utilities.

Timing the market is next to impossible but investors are still buying on rumors of a U.S. – China trade deal and probably sell on news. You may want to avoid putting any new money into the markets or raise some cash and wait for a better buying opportunity.

 

 

Some share buybacks programs are hurting investors & workers

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Between 2008 and 2017, 466 of the S&P 500 companies spent around $4 trillion on stock buybacks, equal to 53 percent of profits. The Trump tax cut of 2018, helped corporations to repurchased more than $1 trillion of their own stock, a staggering figure and the highest amount ever authorized in a single year.

Under a share buyback program, a company purchases a certain number of its own shares on the open market. Reducing the number of outstanding shares making the remaining shares worth more. One of the most obvious reasons for the growth of such programs is to help offset the effects of generous stock compensation packages for executives, including stock options and stock contributions to employees’ 401(k) programs.

In theory, management only repurchases stock if it expects to enhance shareholder value more that way than by using the cash for capital spending, acquisitions, product development or dividend distributions. In reality, it has helped poor management use financial engineering to artificially increase earnings and hopefully keep share prices from falling in value.

A very simple example below shows how financial engineering works. A corporation buybacks 50,000,000 shares at $20.00 each which increases earnings by $0.25 and reduces the price earnings ratio from 20 to 16 making the company more attractive to investors.

buyback

General Electric is a perfect example of corporate mismanagement. From 2015 to 2017, they repurchased $40 billion dollars’ worth of shares at prices between $20 and $32 and their share price is now only $10.21, a total waste of shareholders’ money.

When corporations direct resources to buy back shares on this scale, they reduce their ability to reinvest profits more meaningfully in the company in terms of R&D, new equipment, higher wages, paid medical leave, retirement benefits and worker retraining.

It’s no coincidence that at the same time that corporate stock buybacks have reached record highs, the median wages of average workers have remained relatively stagnant. Far too many workers have watched corporate executives cash in on corporate stock buybacks while they get handed a pink slip.

Recently, Walmart announced plans to spend $20 billion on a share repurchase program while laying off thousands of workers and closing dozens of Sam’s Club stores. Using a fraction of that amount, the company could have raised hourly wages of every single Walmart employee to $15, according to an analysis by the Roosevelt Institute.

Walmart is not alone. Harley Davidson authorized a 15 million share stock-repurchase around the same time it announced it would close a plant in Kansas City, Mo. And Wells Fargo has spent billions on corporate stock buybacks while openly plotting to lay off thousands of workers in the coming years.

Senators:  Sanders-Schumer propose a bill to limit buybacks

Their  bill would prohibit a corporation from buying back its own stock unless it invests in workers and communities first, including things like paying all workers at least $15 an hour, providing seven days of paid sick leave, and offering decent pensions and more reliable health benefits.

They point out:

The past two years have been extremely disappointing for millions of workers. President Trump promised the typical American household a $4,000 pay raise as he pushed for his tax giveaway to the rich. The reality, however, is that from December 2017 to December 2018, real wages for average workers have gone up by just $9.11 a week. Why should a company whose pension program is underfunded be able to buy back stock before shoring up the pension fund?

Stock buybacks don’t benefit the vast majority of Americans because large stockholders tend to be wealthier. Nearly 85 percent of all stocks owned by Americans belong to the wealthiest 10 percent of households. So when a company buys back its stock, boosting its value, the benefits go overwhelmingly to shareholders and executives, not workers.

What do you think? Should government limit share buybacks?

 

 

Yield hunting in the Dogs of the Dow

poker_sympathy

Investing in the Dogs of the Dow as a strategy dates back to 1991 from a book “Beating the Dow” by Michael O’Higgins. The Dogs of the Dow are the 10 highest dividend yielding stocks within the Dow 30. They are called investment “Dogs” because rising dividend yields tend to be a function of falling prices.

It is a simple strategy of allocating an equal amount of funds into each of these 10 stocks and holding them for a year. Normally, an investor would need to only rid about two to three stocks every year and replace them with different ones. These stocks are typically replaced because their dividend yields have fallen out of the top 10 because the stock price has either increased in value or have reduced their dividend payment. (Sometimes a stock, like GE that has fallen on hard times is removed from the DJIA altogether.)

Why am I hunting for yield in the Dogs of the Dow

  • My retirement accounts contain a large percentage of  U.S. dollar holdings.
  • I am a retired Canadian senior who requires income from my investments to pay bills.
  • Dividend stocks provide income and some downward protection during volatile markets.
  • Historically, Dow stocks have been very stable companies that can weather any market decline with their solid balance sheets and strong fundamentals.
  • The current yield on the dogs of the Dow are higher than the yield on 2 & 10 year U.S. treasuries
  • The Canadian dollar is currently trading at a 32% discount to the U.S. dollar which increases the income from holding U.S. stocks.

Dogs of the Dow 2019

Stock Symbol Company Name 2018 Close Dividend Yield
IBM International Business Machines 113.67 5.52%
XOM Exxon Mobil 68.19 4.81%
VZ Verizon Communications 56.22 4.29%
CVX Chevron 108.79 4.12%
PFE Pfizer 43.65 3.30%
KO Coca-Cola 47.35 3.29%
JPM JP Morgan Chase 97.62 3.28%
PG Procter & Gamble 91.92 3.12%
CSCO Cisco Systems 43.33 3.05%
MRK Merck 76.41 2.88%

At first glance, IBM has a very tempting dividend yield. However, I warned my readers that IBM wasn’t a good investment back in 2015 when Warren Buffett lost 11.8% on his IBM shares. Buffett has sold all his IBM shares for an estimated 2 billion dollar lost. The trend has been downward ever since and I don’t see a turn around anytime soon.

Warren Buffett looses $500 million on IBM’s Bad Quarterly Results

Oil stocks have been very volatile due to slower world economic growth, over-supply concerns and fears of a 2020 recession. I am eliminating  both Chevron and Exxon Mobil as potential buys.

I am using fundamentals to eliminate Coca- Cola, Merck and P&G because of their high price earnings ratios compared to the rest of the stock market. Plus, Coco-Cola and Merck have high dividend payout ratios which will make it difficult for them to increase dividend payouts going forward.

J.P. Morgan has never been a Dog of the Dow until this year. U.S. banks have seen their net interest margins decrease due a flattening  yield curve. In simple terms, they are paying more interest on deposits but loan demand is weak so they are getting less loan interest. U.S. banks have under performed the over all market. This is a possible turnaround candidate if economic growth comes in stronger than expected.

Verizon and Pfizer have been Dogs of the Dow for the past five years and have fairly good fundamentals. They both have stable share prices, low payout ratios and reasonable price earnings ratios. These two stocks are possible buys for income.

Dec. 2018 Verizon $52.93 4.46% Pfizer $36.22 3.75%
Dec. 2017 Verizon $53.38 4.33% Pfizer $32.48 3.94%
Dec. 2016 Verizon $46.22 4.89% Pfizer $32.28 3.72%
Dec. 2015 Verizon $46.78 4.70% Pfizer $31.15 3.60%
Dec. 2014 Verizon $49.14 4.31% Pfizer $30.63 3.40%

I think that Cisco is strong buy. Cisco has been a Dog of the Dow for the past 4 years and their share price continues to increase in value. During those years, Cisco has maintain a consistent 3% dividend yield by increasing their annual dividend.

Dec. 2018 Cisco 38.3 3.03%
Dec. 2017 Cisco 30.22 3.44%
Dec. 2016 Cisco 27.16 3.09%
Dec. 2015 Cisco 22.43 3.03%

Unfortunately, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Please do your own research, this post is for educational purposes only!

 

Santa Claus rally, No, No, No?

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Is there any hope for a Santa Claus rally this year? What are the chances the markets could reverse the worst December since 1931?

A Santa Claus rally, which would begin on Monday, is a very specific event. It is the tendency for the market to rise in the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the New Year. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, it is good for an average gain of 1.3% in the S&P since 1950.

What caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to have its worst week since the financial crisis in 2008, down nearly 7 percent and cause the Nasdaq to close down into bear market territory?

  1. The Federal Reserve’s rate hike on Wednesday drove the losses this week and investors were hoping for a more dovish tone regarding future rate hikes. Despite the fact that Chairman Powell reduced the projected number rate hikes from three to two and reduced the neutral rate to 2.8% from 3%.
  2. In my humble opinion, President Trump is partly to blame for the severity of the losses this week due to his criticism of the Fed.  He backed Powell into a corner and forced him to show that the Fed is an independent institution. (the Fed could have put more emphasis on being data dependent) According to some reports, Trump has also discussed firing Powell privately because of his frustration with stock market losses in recent months.
  3. In an extensive interview at the White House on Thursday, Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro said that it would be “difficult” for the U.S. and China to arrive at an agreement after the 90-day period of talks unless Beijing was prepared for a full overhaul of its trade and industrial practices.
  4. Political chaos in Washington with partial government shutdown, sudden withdrawal of troops out of Syria and the resignation of Defensive Secretary Mattis.

Investors are still worried about:

  • A slowdown in economic growth as more companies scale back their sales growth and profit outlook for 2019
  • Fear that a flat yield curve will invert if the Fed continues to hike short-term interest rates
  • The unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet will reduce the availability of credit for corporations
  • The trade war with China will escalate causing more inflation
  • More economists are jumping on the recession bandwagon for 2020
  • Political chaos in Washington will get even worse when the Democrats take power in January

A dead cat bounce is a possibility in January

Image result for dead cat bounce

dead cat bounce is a small short-lived recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the down turn. You need nerves of steel to trade a dead cat bounce but for long-term investors it could be a good time to reduce market risk and re-balance your portfolio.

Image result for merry christmas cat