Is Basic Income the answer to a new AI world?

I am so glad that I am a retired senior. I don’t have to worry about a robot taking my job. Since I have lots of time on my hands to think, I wonder what a new AI world would look like. For example; will my 2 year old granddaughter even need to get a driver’s licence? Will the Uber or cab that she orders even come with a driver?

Now I have always been a big fan of science fiction movies. There is a scene in the movie “Logan” where Wolverine has to dodge driver-less trucks to cross the highway to help some people. Installing AI in 16 wheeler trucks could replace the need for a lot of truckers.

Fast food restaurants have been the training ground for teenagers and young adults.  I used to tell my kids that they better get a good education or you will end up using the phrase “would you like fries with that” while working at MacDonald’s. However, even MacDonald’s are installing new self-serve kiosks. Now you can even order your Starbucks coffee using your phone. Where will young people get work experience?

Everywhere I look, jobs are slowing disappearing, the new AI technology seems to have very few limits.

“For example, Australian company Fastbrick Robotics has developed a robot, the Hadrian X, that can lay 1,000 standard bricks in one hour – a task that would take two human bricklayers the better part of a day or longer to complete.”

Japan has the highest percentage of people over the age of 60 and their population is shrinking. As a nation, there is a shortage of workers and they have embraced the use of robots in the work place. This trend could be coming to North America sooner than you think.

As a baby boomer, I worry about the future cost of health care. The world population is aging and health care costs are raising. I hope that science fiction turns into reality and my caregiver looks something like this.

   or this 

Why universal basic income may be necessary

A 2013 study by Oxford University’s Carl Frey and Michael Osborne estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs will potentially be replaced by robots and automated technology in the next 10 to 20 years. Those individuals working in transportation, logistics, office management and production are likely to be the first to lose their jobs to robots, according to the report.

For many, basic income sounds like a free ride or welfare. Economist believe that masses of people will not just sit at home but will make a contribution by continuing to work. The basic income would allow recipients to explore other options not available to them if they are struggling just to survive,  such as retraining or to find new job opportunities.

In theory, new opportunities would spring up to replace jobs done by machines. However, there are some practical problems, like where will government get the money if less people are working to pay for a basic income program? The North American education system would require a major overhaul to put more job training skills into the curriculum.

Some additional information to consider

The government of Ontario just announced a three year basic income pilot project to help low income earners in three cities. A single person can apply to receive $16,889 a year and couples will receive $24,027. Recipients who are employed will keep what they made from their jobs but their basic income would be reduced by half their earnings. For example, a single person earning $10,000 per year from a part-time job would receive $11,989 in basic income ($16,989 less 50 per cent of their earned income), for a total income of $21,989.

Is basic income just a pipe dream or a future reality?

 

 

 

 

 

Still doing tax returns for my adult children & their spouses

Every year I ask myself, should I continue to offer to do tax returns for my adult children and their spouses? All of them have university degrees and are smart enough to file their own tax returns. My daughter was willing to do it one year using tax preparation software with only a little help from me.

Part of my problem is Canadians are not even aware of how much tax they pay. Plus we keep voting for governments that buy votes using our tax dollars. The average Canadian family will pay 42.9% of their income in taxes imposed by all three levels of government in 2016. (Federal, provincial and local) Tax freedom day was June 7, 2016 if Canadians paid their total tax bill up front. Our U.S. neighbours tax freedom day was April 24th and they will only pay 31% of their income in taxes.

There are a number of reasons why I continue to offer to do tax returns for the whole family. Having worked as a financial advisor, tax planning is a key element when putting a financial plan together. My tax knowledge and skill comes from working many years with accountants and tax lawyers ensuring that my whole family pays the least amount of tax.

Plus, the Canadian tax system is very complicated and is constantly changing with every federal and provincial budget. For example: many tax credits that were given by the Conservative government have been taken away completely by a new Liberal government.

For the 2015 tax year, the Liberals cancelled income splitting for families, a maximum tax credit of $2,000 for transferring up to $50,000 of income to a spouse with a lower income if they had a child under 18 years of age.

Some changes for 2017 include the elimination of the following credits:

  1. Education and textbooks credit
  2. Children’s fitness credit
  3. Children’s arts credit
  4. Public transit tax credit

Now, most retired Canadian seniors who don’t have a pension from their former employer are not even aware of a $2,000 pension credit. It requires opening a RRIF account, transferring $2,000 from their RRSP and then taking it out. They don’t have to wait until they reach the age of 71 in order to open a RRIF account. Plus, RRIF income can be split with your spouse if both of you are 65 years of age which could potentially add up to $4,000 of income tax free per year.

The Federal Liberal government will introduce a new budget on March 22 and there are rumors of more tax increases. Three things that Canadians should worry about;

  1. Higher capital gains inclusion rate from 50% to 75%
  2. Reducing the dividend tax credit
  3. Taxing your principal residency 

I will end this post with two well known proverbs. ” In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” & “A penny saved is a penny earned.”

 

Financial lessons I learned from playing golf

 

I took up golf many years ago in order to entertain clients. I found spending four and a half hours on the golf course was a great way to build a personal relationship with them. I never dreamed I could find time to play for pleasure or that I would even enjoy the game. Today I don’t know what I would do without golf to occupy a significant portion of my leisure time.

I quickly discovered many parallels between golf and managing my personal finances and investments. Like golf, investing and personal finance can often be an elusive challenge for many people, but it doesn’t have to be. Consider the following guidelines and you’ll have a much greater chance at success with both.

Be patient and persistent

Consistent improvement with your golf game takes time. I can’t count the number of times I’d practice diligently on my swing and start to see some improvement, followed by a series of bad rounds. Believe me, sometimes I wanted to throw my clubs into the nearest pond. But players who really improve don’t give up but continue to work on their golf game.

Just like the markets, there will be lots of ups and downs, and you may want to quit. A really bad day of putting can be quite humbling. Just remember, you can’t grow if you don’t play the game. It will be worth your while to stick it out.

Course Knowledge

Belonging to a golf club or playing the same golf course a few times can improve your scores. Knowing where to aim to avoid obstacles and hazards can reduce penalty strokes. Remembering mistakes in club selection can also help improve your golf scores. (Should have hit my 8 iron on this hole)

As an investor, I spend lots of time researching the different markets before selecting my investments. Like golf, constructing or re-balancing my portfolio requires avoiding making costly mistakes in my selection process.

Bad shots are part of game

Accept the fact that you are going to make some bad golf shots. Even golf pros miss hitting some fairways & greens, they even take penalty strokes. Every investment has some degree of risk, sometimes you just have to take the loss. Both golf & investing requires managing your expectations, you are going to make some good and also some bad investments.

Play your own game

I think the most important lesson that golf teaches is to play your own game. Play according to your skill level and make the shots that you know you can make. Trying an impossible shot like hitting out of a hazard may only result in taking more strokes. Taking a penalty stroke maybe a better option. Too often, people let the performance of others affect how they play their own game.

Take lessons or hire a coach

Is it possible to learn golf or investing on your own? Absolutely, but I have taken a few golf lessons and I have also worked as a financial advisor. Some golf lessons have improved my game while others have resulted in poorer scores. Unfortunately, not all professional advice in either golf or investing are created equal. Finding the right professional at a reasonable price could help you avoid some disastrous mistakes.

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My first Hole in One!

Is another credit bubble forming in subprime car loans?

I went shopping for a new car last week and was offered a subprime loan rate that sounded too good to be true. Without even checking my credit history, I was offered the choice of nothing down & half of one percent financing for 5 years. If I wanted to pay cash for the $30,000 vehicle, the dealership would reduce the price by 2,500 dollars.

The credit manager took some time to explain how subprime loans work. Auto makers take their cash back amount and give it to the finance company to buy down the interest rate. So in my case, I could take the $2,500 cash back or it would go to the finance company to reduce my loan interest. My choice really didn’t affect the car dealer in any way.

It got me thinking about some of the articles that I read sounding the alarm bells on the rising delinquency rates in subprime auto loans. Much of the concern centers around loans extended to borrowers with credit scores below 600. Some articles warn that the auto-loan market is a powder keg like the subprime mortgage market was when the globe plunged into a financial crisis eight years ago.  Will the bursting of this bubble cause another U.S. recession?

John Oliver, host of the HBO show “Last Week Tonight,” takes on the opaque world of auto lending.

Oliver points out that while helping people buy a car sounds great, lenders are taking advantage of borrowers with some predatory strategies and absurdly high interest rates. Some are offering loans to those who have recently filed for bankruptcy. Poor borrowers charged high interest rates–the average rate is 19%– end up under a pile of debt. One clip showed that a woman would have to spend $17,000 paying back a loan for a car worth $3,000.

Auto loans, including the loans extended to prime and subprime borrowers, topped $1 trillion for the first time last year, according to Experian data, exceeding the outstanding balances on U.S. credit cards. But that is a far cry compared to the $8.4 trillion mortgage market. Plus, it’s easier to repossess a car than foreclose on a home. There is typically a healthy marketplace for used and repossessed cars. Trying to unload a $300,000 home is far more difficult especially in a neighborhood of foreclosed properties.

As an investor, be aware that massive defaults on auto loans could flood the used-car market, depressing prices for all car types should the bargains among used-vehicle options sway buyers away from new cars. Both Ford & GM are trading with low P/E’s (5.8 & 3.9) and have dividend yields in the 4.7% range. The yield is very attractive for investors looking for income as long as you understand that there could more downward pressure on the stock price.

In a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Ford reported in the first half of this year it allowed $449 million for credit losses, a 34% increase from the first half of 2015. General Motors reported in a similar filing that it set aside $864 million for credit losses in that same period of 2016, up 14% from a year earlier.

If you are in the market for a new or used car, make sure that you can afford the payments. Don’t fall for, no money down ads, 100% approval rates and no sin number required. Remember a car starts to depreciate as soon as you drive it off the lot. Extending a car loan to 84 months (7 years) keeps your monthly payments low but the outstanding loan could be greater than the value of the actual car.