Is your emergency fund ready for the next recession?

Around this time last year, a U.S. government shutdown forced many  government workers to go into debt to pay bills and some even had to go to food banks to make ends meet. They eventually got back pay but it is a good example of why you need an emergency fund. According to a recent survey from Charles Schwab, 59% of Americans say that they are living paycheck to paycheck, despite the fact that the U.S. economy has experienced the longest expansion period in its history.

I have no idea when the good times will end. However, financial experts recommend having an emergency fund in case you lose your job. The financial rule of thumb is to cover 3 months of living expenses if you qualify for unemployment insurance and 6 months if you are self-employed. I am a bit surprised that they also recommend  the need to have funds available for unexpected car or appliance repairs. People who own homes or cars should include such repairs in their annual budgets.

I would recommend making two budgets, one for when you have a job and an emergency budget for when you lose your job. Divide your budget into needs, wants and savings. Needs are expenses you can’t avoid, like mortgage, rent, car loans, food etc. Wants are things you could do without if necessary, like clothes and entertainment. Saving for retirement, college or extra debt payments should also be excluded from your emergency budget.

Once you calculate your absolute bare bones budget, you can start to put money aside every month into an emergency saving account. With tax season just around the corner, you could jump start your savings but including any expected tax refund.

Tips for people living paycheck to paycheck or for those that can’t save fast enough

• Apply for a secured line of credit if you own your own home
• Don’t own a home, then apply for an unsecured line of credit
• Use a line of credit to pay off your credit card balances and put the interest savings into an emergency savings account.
• Worse case scenario: ask your credit card company to increase your credit limit.

Going into debt is not a great option but it is better than losing your home or having to sell your car.

 

Do you know the fable of the ant and the grasshopper? In essence, the ant spends all summer gathering food for the winter while the grasshopper sings and fiddles the summer away. When winter comes the Grasshopper has no food and found itself dying of hunger, while it saw the ants distributing corn and grain from the stores they had collected during the summer.

A recession will come, so be the ant and not the grasshopper!

How to keep your New Year’s financial resolutions for 2020

 

Nearly 70% of Americans are making a money-related New Year’s resolutions and more than half of those making one are prioritizing saving more, according to Fidelity Investments’ 2020 New Year Financial Resolutions study.

As well-meaning as we may be, around half of us failed to keep the financial resolutions we made this year. Change doesn’t come about because people want change so badly. It comes about because they plan it.

Here’s how to make a plan so you can actually accomplish three of the most popular financial resolutions for 2020.

“Save more money”

This goal won’t work for many people, because it needs to be more clearly defined.

• Make the goal as specific as possible: “Save $3,000 over 12 months,” not just “save more money.”
• The goal needs to make sense and be attainable with your skills and abilities.
• The goal should be important to you.
• You need to set a time frame for accomplishing your goal.
• The progress of your goal has to be tractable

Pay down debt

One method is call the snow ball strategy. You make at least the minimum payments on each of your debts, credit card, student loans, etc. and then put any extra money you have toward the debt with the smallest balance, regardless of interest rate or other considerations, so that you pay it off more quickly and have one fewer bill to worry about.

This method has a psychological benefit: Paying off one debt will keep you motivated to then aggressively pay off your next-highest balance and so on.

I prefer the avalanche method, where you focus on paying off the debt with the highest interest rate first. Mathematically, this method is more financially beneficial than the snowball method, because you’ll save more on interest payments. But you might lose steam if you’re not seeing quick results.

Spend Less

This resolution is probably the hardest to actually achieve because it involves making a budget so that you know how much you typically spend each month in major categories: housing, food, transportation, clothing, entertainment, etc.

Changing your spending habits can be difficult because you are pressured to spend from many different social media platforms. Seeing your family and friends post pictures of their vacations, drinking at their favorite pub or dining out with a group of friends are difficult to ignore.

I believe that in order to succeed you need to reduce but not completely eliminate your spending on things you enjoy. Step one is to breakdown areas that you spend too much money on, then make up some spending rules.

For example:

1. One common area of over spending may be going out for lunch every day. New Rule: Bring a lunch to work three days a week and only go out twice a week.
2. Another common area of over spending maybe ordering takeout meals. New Rule: Assign every other Friday for ordering a takeout meal.

Another concrete tactic for spending less: Institute “no spend” rules for yourself. If there are certain things you spend too much money on like books, clothes or entertainment, then set strict rules for yourself for a manageable amount of time, say a month or season. (i.e. no new purchases of summer clothes)

It takes a lot of will power and discipline to be successful in keeping any of these three financial resolutions. However, paying down debt and spending less will automatically lead to saving more.  To be really successful, you want to make sure your goals are attainable, but also that they make sense with the life you want to lead.

Why do economists foresee a recession in 2020?

The economic expansion is the second longest in U.S. history, leading many economists to forecast a recession as early as next year. Two-thirds of the economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics are predicting a recession by the end of 2020.

Why? Just because things seem to be going so well. The late stage of an economic expansion is most vulnerable to a popping of the bubble. It’s typically when unemployment falls, inflation heats up, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool the economy down, often going too far with investors and consumers pulling back.

Economists are concerned that the yield curve is flattening and could easily become inverted. It hasn’t happen yet, but it is getting very close. An inverted yield curve is when short term rates, the two year yield on Treasury notes are higher then the ten year yield. It signals a lack of faith by investors and has predicted the last 5 recessions. (A recession will occur 12-18 months following an inverted yield curve)

The most likely road to recession is runaway inflation. Falling unemployment and rising wages are a good thing, but eventually higher pay forces companies to raise prices more sharply. That could prompt the Fed to raise rates faster. Higher rates and inflation fears push up other borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, including mortgage rates, curtailing home sales as well as household spending and business investment broadly.

Other triggers that could spark a recession:

1. Escalating trade conflicts: President Trump has recently slapped 25% tariffs on 16 billion worth of imports from China and China has responded with 25% tariffs on American goods. So far, both China and the U.S. have now imposed tariffs of $50 billion on each other’s goods. The United States has also threatened to slap 25% tariffs on an additional $200 billion of imported goods from China.
2. Higher energy prices: Oil price spikes have contributed to every recession since World War II by sapping consumer purchasing power, according to Moody’s. U.S. benchmark crude oil prices of about $65 a barrel are up from a low of about $26 in early 2016 and $59 early this year but well below the $112 reached in 2014. And average gasoline prices are just under $3 a gallon compared with more than $4 four years ago.
3. Budget battles: Early this year, Congress raised budget spending caps by about $300 billion, with most of that devoted to higher defense spending, but that deal expires in late 2019. And the nation’s debt limit must be raised in early 2019. Both issues set up dramatic showdowns in Congress, especially if the midterm elections this year result in a more even split between Democrats and Republicans.
4. Trouble overseas: The new populist government in Italy has vowed to reverse the country’s austerity measures and give citizens a minimum income. Such measures could revive the country’s debt crisis. They also could pose threats to European banks that hold the debt and spell new risks to the European economy, hurting global stocks and U.S. exports.

Keep in mind that stock markets will decline six months before the start of the next recession. No need to panic yet, but it maybe a good time to review your investment accounts.

• Consider taking some profits on some of your more aggressive equity positions
• Re-balance your bond holdings to more short term duration from long term
• Put any extra cash into high saving accounts
• Pay down debt

 

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job.

 

Bank of Canada’s big gamble on raising interest rates

The central bank raised interest rates to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent on Wednesday, its first hike in seven years. I am still scratching my head trying to figure out why?

Inflation figures have eased over recent months, the price of oil hasn’t recovered to the $60 level. Therefore, oil prices will keep headline inflation low. Foreign capital is still leaving the Alberta oil sands seeking cheaper oil production fields in the United States. Alberta’s unemployment rate is falling but it is still over 7 percent, not exactly booming.

The housing sector is responsible for 25% of Canada’s GDP growth. The housing bubble is already showing signs of bursting and household debt is at extremely high levels. Higher borrowing costs will dampen economic growth pushing core inflation further below target. Higher interest rates make mortgages more expensive and Canadians will have less money to spend.

Hedge funds have been shorting the Canadian dollar and our Canadian banks expecting a meltdown in housing. Add low oil prices to the mix and fund managers were betting on a big drop in value of our dollar. Surprise, the Canadian dollar has jump 5% in value against the U.S. dollar. When you add the fact that the United States receives 75 percent of our exports, the increased value of our dollar is going to make our exports more expensive which could further reduce economic growth.

The Bank of Canada’s own projections for economic growth don’t seem to justify increasing interest rates at this point.

“The Bank of Canada now expects the economy to grow 2.8 per cent this year, or faster than the 2.6-per-cent pace it predicted in its April forecast. GDP growth will slow to 2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, the bank said.”

Is the Bank of Canada trying to shock Canadians to curb their appetite for debt financing? Will increasing the value of the Canadian dollar stop foreigners from buying Canadian real estate?

Many economist have made the argument that the two original rate cuts in 2015 were made as insurance to avoid a recession in Canada due to the falling price of oil.  That threat has been avoided and therefore the Bank of Canada is justified in taking back those two cuts.

My theory is the Bank of Canada is gambling with a temporary slowdown in economic growth in order to help our government renegotiate NAFTA. Talks will be starting soon with the United States. Keeping our interest rates close to the U.S. rates and a stronger looking Canadian dollar would certainly show good faith during the negotiations.

Where does it go from here?

Despite the housing market, some analysts believe the BOC will announce further rate hikes. Citi analysts predict two rate hikes this year (including Wednesday’s hike) but no more until the second half of next year. BoAML expects another rate hike in January of next year but says such decisions will be “data dependent”.

 

 

 

 

Can the Yield Curve Predict the Future?

The U.S. Treasury “yield curve” compares the yields of short-term Treasury bills with long-term Treasury notes and bonds. The U.S. Treasury Department issues Treasury bills for terms less than a year. It issues notes for terms of two, three, five, and ten years. It issues bonds in terms of 20 and 30 years. All Treasury securities are often called “notes” or “Treasury’s” for short.

There are three types of yield curves. They tell you how investors feel about the economy. For that reason, they are a useful indicator of economic growth.

A normal yield curve is when investors are confident, and shy away from long-term notes, causing those yields to rise steeply. That means they expect the economy will grow quickly. What does this mean to you? Mortgage interest rates and other loans follow the yield curve. When there’s a normal yield curve, a 30-year fixed mortgage will require you to pay much higher interest rates than a 15-year mortgage. If you can swing the payments, you’d be much better off, in the long run, trying to qualify for the 15-year mortgage.

A flat yield curve is when the yields are low across the board. It shows that investors expect slow growth. It could also mean that economic indicators are sending mixed messages, and some investors expect growth while others aren’t as sure. When the yield curve is flat, you aren’t going to save as much with a 15-year mortgage. You might as well take the 30-year loan, and invest the savings for your retirement. Better yet, apply the savings against the principle and look toward the day you can own your home free and clear.

A flat yield curve means that banks probably aren’t lending as much as they should. Why? They don’t receive a lot more return for the risks of lending out money for five, ten or fifteen years. As a result, they only lend to low-risk customers. They are more likely to save their excess funds in low-risk money market instruments and Treasury notes.

An inverted yield curve is when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields. It’s an unusual situation where investors demand more yield for the short-term bills than they do for the longer-term notes and bonds. Why would this happen? They expect the economy to do worse in the next year or so and then straighten out in the long run. That’s why an inverted yield curve usually forecasts a recession. In fact, the yield curve inverted before both the 2000 and the 2008 recession.

Many market participants have pointed out that the bond market does not appear to share the equity market’s enthusiasm. As the S&P 500 rises to record highs, the 10-year Treasury yield has remained at rather low levels and is actually significantly lower on the year. This is all the more surprising given that short-term yields have risen as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes, so that the “yield curve” has flattened meaningfully.

The bond market appears to be saying that economic growth will not be particularly strong, particularly in the medium term an apparent rejection of the optimism that is being baked into stock prices.
It’s certainly common to hear it remarked that the bond market is “smarter” than the stock market, which is one of the reasons macro investors often look to the signals that the fixed income world is throwing off.

Should you be worried?

My daughter’s reply: What money lessons did you learn from your father?

“Enjoyed the article, thought I would write one of my own.” 

What money lessons did you learn from your father?

By Deanna Di Lello

 

When I was seven or eight years old my father took me to the bank to open my first savings account. I had been given ten dollars as a birthday present and it was going in the bank to earn interest!

When the account was set up I was handed my very first bank book. Whenever I had Christmas or Birthday money – in the bank it went and I watched the number in my book go up and up. My father taught me to save, but that’s not all he taught me.

The value of money

I earned an allowance as a kid and when I was old enough I got a paper route. Buying a toy with the money I had earned was much more satisfying than having it bought for me. Plus, I learned how much things cost compared to what I had earned. (I think I asked for my allowance to be raised on more than one occasion…)

Things really were better “back in his day”

When my brother and I were in high school we were told that when my dad was in university the money he earned from his summer job paid for his tuition. Those days were long gone. He asked us to work part time during the year and during the summer to earn money for school. He would cover the rest of our tuitions so we didn’t end up with student debt. We were extremely fortunate in this case as many of our peers did not have that luxury.

Pay the full amount on your credit card, not just the minimum

When I was nineteen and about to enter university I received my first credit card. I was told to use it to build up a good credit rating… but not to use it too much and to definitely pay off the full balance. I know many people drowning in credit card debit because they did not follow this advance.

Choose a partner who is good with money

The number one argument couples have is about money. My parents bicker sometimes, but not about how they spend. My mother’s values are in line with my father’s.

My husband had student debit from both his undergrad and post graduate degrees. As he changed jobs and earned more money, he would increase his payments. It was always a priority for him and as a result of his dedication, it has now been paid off.

It is better to give than to receive

For my parents’ twenty-fifth wedding anniversary, my father contacted my mother’s favourite charity and organized an award in her honour. This prize is awarded annually to a lucky recipient and my parents often attend the ceremony. It wasn’t the cash prize that moved my mother, brother and I to tears. It was the thoughtfulness of the gift. It was the knowledge that someone else’s life would be made just a little bit better thanks to his love.

Money doesn’t buy happiness… but neither does poverty

My father didn’t say this, but it’s true. His financial success was never motivated by the lure of bigger houses and more expensive cars. He only wanted to make sure that his wife and children were provided for.  That if there was ever an emergency that required a last minute financial expense, he could cover it.

 

My father taught me this and so much more.

 

“Thanks, Dad.”

 

What money lessons did you learn from your father?

To say that my relationship with my father was complex would be an understatement. I can’t imagine leaving Canada, going to a foreign country with no marketable skills, not being able to read, write or speak the language. That is exactly what my father did when he left war torn Italy back in 1952. A whole new meaning to “desperate times calls for desperate measures.”

Lesson one: Higher education can lead to better paying jobs

My father had very little formal education and at the age of 12, he left school to work the family farm. It is no wonder that I received many lectures on the value of a good education. It didn’t matter that I used to argue that some university courses didn’t really prepare young people for the working world. His reply was always the same. “You need that piece of paper” (a university degree)

We were both right, the university degree did help me to get my first job but I still had to go through a rigorous company training program. The university courses that I took had very little to do with my career.

Lesson two: The difference between needs and wants

There is no doubt that growing up in a low income environment taught me the difference between what I needed and what I wanted. Watching my dad stretch his paycheck to provide the bare necessaries in life was a real eye opener. It has stuck with me ever since and I still avoid spending money for luxury items.

Lesson three: Own the roof over your head

I am amazed that within six years my parents who were illiterate, with no education, manage to save enough money to buy a house. They earned extra income by renting a portion of our house for over ten years to assist with the mortgage payments. My mother still lives in that house and because it is located in Toronto, it could be worth close to one million dollars today.

Lesson four: Never spent money that you don’t have

My dad never owned a credit card. He paid for everything with cash or check.  A few times he did borrow some money from relatives to buy a new car or for medical bills before there was government paid health care. I know that my broken leg put some extra strain on the family’s finances when I was very young.

What my dad couldn’t teach me

Saving for retirement and how to invest your money

Being uneducated, he didn’t know that income from government pension plans would only cover a small portion of his living expenses in retirement. Despite his frugal life style, he would have had to sell the house at much lower prices than today. His untimely death and an inheritance from my mother’s parents has delayed the selling of the house for the past 25 years.

Happy Father’s Day!

Pass on what you know to your children!