Sorry America, Canada is imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods

We have been good neighbours for 151 years and we share the longest unsecured international border in the whole world.  We have fought and died together in too many wars to even count. However, Canada’s foreign minister announced Friday that Ottawa plans to impose about $12.6 billion worth of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods on July 1, joining other major U.S. allies striking back in the escalating trade dispute.

Canada’s plan taking effect next week will include imports of U.S. products such as yogurt, caffeinated roasted coffee, toilet paper and sleeping bags. Canada’s announcement is part of larger fallout from U.S. President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed on Canada, the EU and other nations. As a result, some of the U.S.’ biggest trading partners have retaliated with counter-tariffs.

 “We will not escalate, and we will not back down,” Freeland said.

Mexico’s tariffs took effect June 5 on U.S. products such as pork, cheese, cranberries, whiskey and apples. The EU enacted tariffs Friday on more than $3 billion worth of U.S. goods including bourbon, yachts and motorcycles.

The White House’s stated goal in implementing tariffs is protecting U.S. jobs, but the initial business response suggests that U.S. companies are taking a hit. Companies are coping with the tit-for-tat tariffs by increasing prices or making business changes to cope with higher costs.

Harley-Davidson, an American Icon, is an example why Trumps’s protectionist agenda may not work.

In May 2017, Harley said it planned to build a plant in Thailand. Harley’s CEO, Matt Levatich, said the decision was made as part of a “Plan B” when Trump dropped out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The plant would allow Harley to avoid Thailand’s tariffs on imported motorcycles and help the company obtain tax breaks when exporting to neighbouring countries.

In January Harley announced plans to close its Kansas City plant, leaving 800 workers without jobs. It will shift operations to another plant in York, Pennsylvania, and hire some workers there, but ultimately there will be a net loss of 350 jobs. Days later it said it would spend nearly $700 million on stock buybacks that would benefit shareholders.

The company also announced on Monday it will shift the production of its Europe-bound motorcycles overseas as a result of the EU’s retaliatory tariffs. It’s not exactly clear which factories will take on the excess production for Harley. However, Harley’s Street-model bikes are made in India for Italy, Spain, and Portugal. More American jobs could be effected.

Harley-Davidson took its tax cut, closed a plant, and bought back stock.

The chart below is Harley-Davidson’s stock price from Trump being elected President to Friday’s closing prices. Is it safe to assume that both shareholders and workers are not benefiting from Trump’s protectionist agenda?

The automotive industry is Trump’s next target for imposing tariffs. Trump’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross plans two days of public hearings on July 19-20 aimed to wrap up the probe into whether imported vehicles represent a national security threat by late July or August.

Two major auto trade groups warned imposing 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles would cost hundreds of thousands of auto jobs, dramatically hike prices on vehicles and threaten industry spending on self-driving cars.

Lets hope that this trade war with our American neighbours will not accelerate! Wishing them a Happy 4th of July!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Is Trump creating trade uncertainty to attract investment into the U.S. ?

Image result for king trump cartoon

The Trump administration has lifted exemptions for Canada, Mexico and the European Union on its punishing steel and aluminum tariffs. Former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge says the United States is deliberately creating global trade uncertainty to drive investment to its shores.

“The White House and the people around the president look at the world in a way that, if they can create uncertainty about investment elsewhere in the world, then both Americans and foreigners will come and invest more in the United States,” Dodge told BNN Bloomberg on Monday.

This strategy has partially worked over the past 18 months as unsuccessful NAFTA talks have caused companies to postpone or delay important investment decisions. Current Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg last Friday that the ongoing NAFTA negotiations threaten to drive investment in Canada away for good.

President Trump is headed for a showdown with America’s allies at a Group of Seven summit today in Quebec, with the European Union and Canada threatening retaliatory measures unless he reverses course on new steel and aluminum levies. The EU has threatened to retaliate with duties on everything from American motorcycles to bourbon. Canada and Mexico have also promised to levy their own tariffs on U.S. goods.

The White House appeared unfazed by threats from allies. Top economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was “overreacting” in response to the tariffs, and said the blame for any escalation lies with the U.S.’s trading partners. He said Trump is simply responding to decades of trade abuse.

The president believes that the tariffs being charged against other countries would help to fund the U.S. government and also believes that the U.S. could not lose a trade war in an international climate where the rules were already stacked against American business.

In my humble opinion, Trump’s bullying tactics may have worked in real estate negotiations with contractors and financial institutions. However, it seems to me that world leaders are not going to allow Trump to win concessions without a serious fight.

This trade dispute has triggered one of the biggest crises in the G-7 since the group’s formation by Canada, France, Italy, Germany, the U.K., Japan and the U.S. In a rare rebuke of a member nation, G-7 finance chiefs said the U.S. duties could “undermine open trade and confidence in the global economy.”

Trump’s “America First” policy could turn into “America Alone” as trade tensions escalate with allies.  So far the world stock markets have not reacted to the fact that tariffs will boost the inflation rate. Leading to higher interest rates and slower global growth.

Lets hope that cooler heads prevail and the world avoids another great recession.

 

 

 

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Why China will outlast the U.S. in trade war

In the political terms, President Xi Jinping runs a communist country that has just granted him the ability to rule for life. He enjoys advantages that may allow him to cope with the economic fallout far better than President Trump. His authoritarian grip on the news media and the party means there is little room for criticism of his policies, while Trump must contend with complaints from American companies and consumers before important midterm elections in November.

The Chinese government also has much greater control over their economy, allowing it to shield the public from job cuts or factory closings by ordering banks to support industries suffering from American tariffs. It can spread the pain of a trade war while tolerating years of losses from state-run companies that dominate major sectors of the economy. In addition, China is also sitting on top of about $3 trillion in surplus cash.

At best, the American actions could shave one-tenth of a percentage point off China’s economic growth. Not enough to force a drastic reversal of policies, given the enormous benefits that Chinese leaders see in the state-heavy economic model they have relied on in recent decades.

Chinese tariffs on the American agricultural sector is very influential in the Congress. Many states that have voted republican in the past will be hardest hit by these tariffs.

Hopefully the president is just blowing off steam again but, if he’s even half-serious, this is nuts,” said Senator Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska, “China is guilty of many things, but the president has no actual plan to win right now. He’s threatening to light American agriculture on fire.”

In addition to agriculture, China threatened to retaliate with tariffs on American cars, chemicals and other products. The 106 goods, many produced in parts of the country that have supported Mr. Trump, were selected to deliver a warning that American workers and consumers would suffer in a protracted standoff.

The mere talk of a possible trade war has sent investors on a rolling coaster ride of uncertainty. The six month chart of the S&P 500 below clearly illustrates increased volatility.

China also has the upper hand because it holds $1.2 trillion dollars of American debt. Trump’s tax cuts and infrastructure spending will require issuing more debt. The U.S. government has relied on foreigners to purchase treasuries to finance their spending because American saving rates are so low and they can’t participate fully. Add the fact that the biggest buyer of treasuries was the Federal Reserve which has started to sell it’s holdings.

What would happen to the bond yields if China doesn’t buy additional American debt?

The economic law of supply and demand dictates that more supply will cause prices to fall. If bond prices fall then yields will go up, causing interest rates to raise. Wage and price pressures are already rising, higher tariffs would only intensify these pressures forcing the Fed to raise interest rates even more.

A worst case scenario, the talking war turns into a trade war that could slow U.S. growth, tank the stock market and cause a U.S. recession.

 

President Trump is approaching this like does everything else, by talking tough and expecting his opponent to give in. Unfortunately for Trump, it’s not the 80s anymore. China was dramatically underdeveloped then and it wanted access to Western technology and manufacturing techniques. China is relatively mature today and it can easily obtain what it needs from other vendors outside the United States. While the U.S. market looked enticing a few decades ago, Beijing is more interested in newer emerging market countries.

Trump is not only gambling his political future but the financial well-being of Americans if he starts a trade war.

Trudeau is whistling by the Canadian graveyard

According to Wiktionary:  “whistle-past-the-graveyard” is to attempt to stay cheerful in a dire situation; to proceed with a task, ignoring an upcoming hazard, hoping for a good outcome.

In my humble opinion, this idiom describes our Prime Minister perfectly. The Canadian government missed a golden opportunity to respond to the Trump tax cuts in the February 2018 federal budget.  The United States, our largest trading partner, has made investing in the U.S. more attractive than Canada. Corporate tax rates in the U.S. are 5% lower than Canada and more important is the 100% deduction for new capital spending.

The Canadian dollar has fallen in value from $1.2586 at the end of February to $1.3079 today. A clear sign that foreigners are taking their money out of Canada.  The uncertainly regarding the successful re-negotiation of NAFTA is hurting our dollar and is also responsible for the lack of capital spending in Canada.

Our factors that make Canada less competitive than investing in the U.S.

  • Carbon taxes have increased energy costs.
  • February budget increased taxes for small businesses and individuals.
  • Canadian oil is being sold at a discount by $20 to $25 a barrel costing billions of dollars in lost revenue to Canadian oil companies and loss of tax revenue.
  • Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is being delayed by protesters.
  • Many LNG projects have been scrapped. Meanwhile, this sector is booming in the U.S.
  • The housing market is slowing down due to a 15% foreign buyer’s tax, tightening mortgage rules and higher mortgage rates.
  • Tariffs on softwood lumber, pulp & paper and solar panels. (Steel & aluminium tariffs could become permanent if Trump doesn’t like the NAFTA deal)

No surprise that the Toronto stock exchange is down 4% year to date while the S&P 500 is flat and NASDAQ is up 6%. The Trump tax cuts have already boosted employment and capital spending should kick in the second half of 2018. However, there are still are plenty of risks investing in the U.S. with the Trump circus in Washington. Possible trade wars leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

It is going to be very challenging to make money in 2018!

I am still a Canadian Bear

Trump Tariffs are all about politics and not national security

 

Canada and Brazil are likely to bear the brunt of any tariffs on steel imposed by President Donald Trump. According to the department’s International Trade Administration, Canadian and Brazilian steel comprised 16 percent and 13 percent of U.S. steel imports as of September 2017. China is not one of the top 10 importers of steel to the U.S. (take a good look at the above pie chart)

Top foreign sources of aluminum included Canada (56 percent), Russia (8 percent) and the United Arab Emirates (7 percent) between 2013 and 2016, according to the United States Geological Survey.

In my humble opinion, there is little justification on applying a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% on aluminium based on national security. The majority of steel and aluminium that the U.S. imports comes from military allies.

Now, the timing on this tariffs are somewhat suspect with a congressional election in the 18th district of Pennsylvanian next week. In case you didn’t know, Pennsylvania manufactures a lot of steel. This is Trump country, he carried this district by 20% in the 2016 election. The race is so tight that Trump had a rally in Pennsylvania supporting Rick Saccone.

“Do me a favor,” he said to the large crowd gathered in a hangar at the Pittsburgh airport. “Get out on Tuesday, vote for Rick Saccone, and we can leave right now.”

Trump also using tariffs as a bargaining chip in NAFTA negotiations

Canada and Mexico received a temporary exemption from the tariffs. It will depend on whether the changes that are made to NAFTA will satisfy Trump.  The seventh round of talks in Mexico produced very little process. The final round of NAFTA talks are schedule in Washington sometime in April. The Trump tariffs will put extra pressure on Canada and Mexico to give Trump a deal that will help him get republicans elected this November.

President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum likely precedes an exit from NAFTA, according to Goldman Sachs.

Stock Markets don’t like tariff wars

Tariffs will artificially boost input costs and increase the cost of imported finished products. The fear is an increase of inflation, leading to raising interest rates which would dampen economic growth. The other fear is that corporations will be unable to pass on an increase in input prices which could lead to job cuts.

I expect more tough talk on trade from President Trump because many American voters think that the wealthy will benefit the most from tax cuts. I believe that stock market volatility will intensify over the next few months.

 

It may be a good time to raise some cash and pick up some bargains.

 

Market correction when Trump sends a NAFTA withdrawal letter

FILE PHOTO: Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland (centre) Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo (Left) and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (right) REUTERS/Chris Wattie/File Photo

I disagree with most media and political pundits that believe Trump is unpredictable. He campaigned on America first which includes being tough on illegal immigration and ripping up NAFTA. His voting base believes that these two issues are responsible for low wages and poor job opportunities in the United States.

It was obvious to me that the U.S. government shutdown was caused by Trump who set the March 5th deadline for DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals). He is using Dreamers as a bargaining chip to get funding for more border security and for his idiotic wall. Eighty per cent of Americans don’t want Dreamers to be deported. If Trump really cared, he would have informed the House of Representatives to draft a by partisan bill to solely deal with DACA.

In my humble opinion, Trump is just looking for an excuse to rip up NAFTA. Donald Trump’s protectionist leanings have been obvious since before the U.S. presidential election. U.S. negotiators are showing few signs of backing down from unrealistic demands on automotive content rules, the chapter 19 dispute mechanism and a five-year sunset clause that have left NAFTA teetering on the brink.

Canada and Mexico have rejected most of the U.S. proposals for NAFTA reforms, leaving officials with a big job if they are to bridge the large differences in Montreal. Negotiations are due to wrap up at the end of March.

Protectionist moves as U.S. imposes tariffs on the following imports

  • Softwood lumber (Canada)
  • C-series planes (Canada)
  • Pulp & Paper (Canada)
  • Washing machines (South Korea)
  • Solar cells & modules (China)

Canada is firing back by bringing a trade complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) despite the fact that the president has been particularly critical of the WTO and its system for dispute settlement.

A former U.S. trade representative says he’s hoping that a recent wide-ranging trade complaint launched by the Canadian government against the United States won’t “end up blowing up in their face” at the NAFTA negotiating table.

Adding more fuel to the fire, Canada has agreed to a resurrected a version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and will sign on to the deal. The deal, renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, comes after talks in Japan this week with the 11 countries (including Mexico) that are still committed to the deal.

“We are happy to confirm the achievement of a significant outcome on culture as well as an improved arrangement on autos with Japan, along with the suspension of many intellectual property provisions of concern to Canadian stakeholders,” said International Trade Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne in a statement.

Will these moves strengthen Canada’s position at the negotiation table with the United States or will it force Trump to play his withdrawal card?

My bet is that picking a fight with Trump will result in him sending a NAFTA withdrawal letter to both Canada & Mexico which will cause a stock market correction.  In my humble opinion, it is only a question of when!

Both young & old should make a budget

Contrary to popular belief, money has no value what so ever until you spend it. It is what you spend it on that has value. The value we place on money is dependent on what we think we can buy with it. The money you are paid as a salary is just a number written on a pay slip or is deposited directly into your bank account in exchange for the service you provided to your employer.

Why is budgeting so important

Since the value of money comes from its buying power, planning your spending ensures that you have enough money for things that you need and for things that are important to you. A spending plan will also keep you from spending money that you don’t have or help you get rid of unwanted debt. (Not all debt is bad)

The buying power of money is determined by the supply and demand for goods in the economy. Inflation in the economy causes the future value of money to reduce its purchasing power. A budget helps you figure out your short and long term goals plus measures your progress.

Budget Categories

  1. Shelter – rent, mortgage, property taxes
  2. Utilities – heat, hydro, water, cable, internet, cell phone
  3. Food
  4. Transportation – bus pass, car payments, gasoline, repairs
  5. Clothes & Accessories
  6. Gifts
  7. Insurance – car, home and life
  8. Entertainment – including vacations
  9. Emergency fund
  10. General savings – major purchases, debt repayments, retirement

It is really important for seniors to have a budget. You don’t want to outlive your money and be a financial burden to your children. There are three stages of retirement, “go go”, “slow go” and “no go”.

You tend to spend more money in the “go go” stage since today’s seniors are healthier than previous generations. Plus, life expectancy has increased so seniors will also have more leisure time.

As more people are living longer, the “no go” stage in retirement can become very costly due to the increasing risk of health problems. The risk of developing a cognitive disease like Dementia or Alzheimer increases with age. Costs for caregivers, assistance living and nursing homes are not cheap. (The cost for my elderly mother’s caregiver is about $20,000 per year)

Why people don’t budget

  1. They’ve got the wrong idea. Budgeting’s got a reputation for being too restrictive; you work hard for your money, why shouldn’t you be able to spend it as you see fit? But it isn’t as terrible as it seems. In fact, when you stick to a budget, you’re likely to have even more money left over to do with as you please. Budgets shouldn’t be about making big restrictive changes. Rather, when you examine your finances, you see small ways to make changes that will have big effects.
  1. It is intimidating. Got a vice that you don’t want to give up? Scared that if you make a budget you won’t be able to stick to it? There are tons of reasons you might fear drawing up a budget, but that shouldn’t keep you from trying! When you create a budget, you’re enabling yourself to find and fix the financial mistakes you make, rather than ignoring them and hoping they’ll go away by themselves.
  1. It is time-consuming & boring.Unless you have a passion for spreadsheets, chances are that budgets bore you to tears. You might not want to budget because the actual act of budgeting just seems like row upon row and column upon column of money that’s no longer yours.
  1. They think they don’t need to. In today’s economy, not many people can say that they don’t need to budget because they have enough money. Even if this is the case for you, a budget can always help you to save more.
  1. They think a budget can’t help. Most of us have heard the adage ‘the first step to recovery is admitting there’s a problem.’ Debt is a very personal issue and it can be difficult to admit, even to yourself. There are a variety of ways to help clear your debt and drawing up a comprehensive budget is the best way to start doing this.

I just put the finishing touches to my 2018 budget, how about you?